Вплив структурних дисбалансів фінансової системи на економічну безпеку держави

Орлов, В.В.; Orlov, V.V.

Вплив структурних дисбалансів фінансової системи на економічну безпеку держави

Орлов, В.В.; Orlov, V.V.

URI: http://eztuir.ztu.edu.ua/123456789/8275

Дата: 2022

Анотація:

Дисертація на здобуття наукового ступеня доктора економічних наук за спеціальністю 08.00.08 «Гроші, фінанси і кредит». – Державний університет «Житомирська політехніка», Житомир, 2022. Дисертація присвячена вирішенню наукової проблеми розвитку теоретико-методологічних засад та практичного інструментарію визначення впливу структурних дисбалансів на стан економічної безпеки держави. Визначені теоретичні засади формування структурних зрушень як основи прояву фінансових дисбалансів, концептуалізовано природу фінансових дисбалансів, обґрунтовано теоретичні засади переходу до формування фінансової екосистеми. Визначено теоретичні засади формування та оцінювання фінансової безпеки в контексті формування системи національної стійкості та економічної безпеки; запропоновано науково-методичний підхід, що базується на проведенні каузального аналізу оцінювання залежності формування реального ВВП від базових чинників. Проведено структурно-динамічний аналіз та розрахунок економіко-статистичних показників для визначення рівня розбалансованості в секторах фінансової системи. Запропоновано комплексний підхід до визначення інтегрального індикатора економічної безпеки. Обґрунтовано науково-методичний підхід щодо прогнозування індексу економічної безпеки. Запропоновані методичні засади оцінювання часового проміжку впливу структурних дисбалансів фінансової системи на економічну безпеку держави. Запропонована дорожня карта реформ забезпечення економічної безпеки держави.

Анотація (англ.):

Dissertation for the scientific degree of Doctor of Economic Sciences in the specialty 08.00.08 "Money, Finances and Credit". – Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University, Zhytomyr, 2022. The dissertation is devoted to solving the scientific problem of developing theoretical and methodological foundations and practical tools for determining the impact of structural imbalances on the state’s economic security. The work defines a structurally subordinated system of interrelationships between categories characterizing evolutionary and/or revolutionary transformations in the structure of the system: "changes in the structure of a discrete nature → dynamic changes → structural shifts → structural transformation". The concepts of 37 "financial stability" and "financial strength" have been developed, which have different content, but are closely related. Based on the systematization of existing approaches, the concept of "financial imbalances" was developed. The conceptual principles of transition to the creation of financial eco-system under the influence of financial technologies’ development have been formed, which provides for the functioning of its two components – a centralized financial system and decentralized finances. It was determined that the financial system underwent structural changes in the period from 2014 to 2021 shifting to a new coordinate system with a new plane of all financial dimensions. In this regard, an improved classification of the constituent elements of financial security, based on the sectoral structure of the financial system, and an updated list of indicators characterizing it, are proposed. The proposed scientific and methodical approach is based on a causal analysis of the assessment of dependence in the formation of real GDP as the main determinant characterizing the country's economic security on macroeconomic, foreign economic and social factors. The expediency of using structural-dynamic analysis toolkit was substantiated through the use of the following indicators: linear and quadratic coefficients of absolute structural shifts, quadratic coefficient of relative structural shifts, integral coefficients of structural shifts of K. Gatev A. Salai. In addition, indicators of statistical population dispersion, root mean square deviation, coefficient of variation and coefficient of oscillation were used to assess the homogeneity of the studied time series. An assessment of the balance of financial flows, which are formed in basic sectors: public finance due to the state of budget security (according to income, economic and functional expenses of budgets of all levels – state, local and consolidated) and the state of debt security; financial sector (banking sector, stock market sector) through institutional and functional components. Their imbalance in all sectors is proven. All this leads to the formation of threats to economic security and a decrease in the efficiency of the national economy. As a result of correlation-regression analysis of the state of Ukrainian and global stock markets, it was established that the dynamics of trading on Perspektiva Stock Exchange and PFTS Stock Exchange is determined by the dynamics of trading on the American stock exchanges, and their forecast values have a significant range of variation, which characterizes them as highly risky and unbalanced. The current state of the banking sector of Ukraine indicates a significant monetary squeeze and a decrease in the level of financial depth, which has a negative impact on economic growth, since the economy does not have a sufficient amount of financing for expanded reproduction. The banking sector is unbalanced both in the institutional dimension and in the functional dimension. A comprehensive approach to determining the indicator of economic security using the Harrington method and the average exponential for normalization of initial data and calculation of subintegral indicators is proposed; carrying out a factor analysis of the impact of digitization and other components on ensuring the 38 country’s economic security based on the application of the principal components method, as well as the formation of an integral indicator calculated on the basis of the multiplicative Keene convolution. The methodological principles of forecasting the economic security index under the influence of the following indicators are substantiated: corruption control, government efficiency, political stability and absence of violence/terrorism, quality of regulation, rule of law, transparency and accountability. The proposed methodological principles for evaluating the time span of the influence of structural imbalances of the financial system on the state’s economic security are based on multivariate regression analysis. The strength and direction of influence of structural imbalances in the financial system on the integral index of economic security has been established with the help of structural modeling. The road map of reforms of the national system of ensuring the state’s economic security within the limits of its institutional, process and functional elements is proposed. The impact of digitalization of financial relations on the expected results of the proposed improvement measures is substantiated.

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